How's the Market?

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! Mortgage rates fell again this week to the lowest levels in a month while mortgage demand is up 6% week over week, Bitcoin is going to the moon after breaking $100k, the Dow broke 45,000, Trump nominated crypto-friendly lawyer Paul Atkins to run the SEC. Black Friday set a huge sales record, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a wide ranging interview at the NY Times DealBook Summit Wednesday, and if you’re tired of the dating apps Gen Z is finding love on Facebook (yes, really).

How’s the Market?

The answer to that question hinges on one key factor: Which side of the transaction are you on? Whether you're buying, selling, renting, or investing, the dynamics of the market will look very different depending on your position. In a city as unique and complex as New York, the real estate market is a living, breathing entity—hyper-dynamic and constantly evolving.

The "market" isn't a single entity; it's a collection of micro-markets, each influenced by neighborhood characteristics, economic shifts, and global trends. What’s happening in Manhattan's luxury high-rises might contrast sharply with the trends in Brooklyn’s family-friendly brownstones or Queens’ rental market.

Adding to the complexity, real-time market observations and lagging data tell different stories. The numbers you see in the news—while useful—often represent what happened months ago. On the ground, brokers and agents observe leading indicators that hint at where the market is headed, offering valuable insights that can guide decisions today.

Rental Market: Competition among renters has started to cool down along historical/seasonal cycles. The market place is seeing an increase in concessions with now 1 in 5 rentals offering free rent as a concession. That is the highest since July 2021. Even with the softening of competition, prices are still higher than their pre-pandemic average and we should see prices slowly start to come down as we move through the beginning of 2025. First time homebuyers being ‘stuck’ in the rental market due to higher rates have caused a larger influx of demand for limited supply.

Buying Market: Although rates are elevated compared to where they were last quarter, buyers are still circling and moving on well priced inventory while overall activity has picked up. You are better off buying in higher rate environments with lower pricing than lower rate environments with higher pricing. Large financial firms like Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are forecasting that prices nationwide will rise in 2025. As more buyers come into the market place, they will still be competing for limited supply which may drive prices up even higher in prime markets like NYC.

Sellers Market: The biggest challenge in every housing market is the limited supply that is available. As a seller, if you are priced correctly, you can still sell within 30-45 days of going on market. If you have a property in an area with even higher demand, is in great condition and is priced properly, you can move much faster and well within the 30 day window. Although selling your home in a higher rate environment than when you purchased may be a tough pill to swallow, being able to upgrade to a larger asset by moving on from your current home can be the better long term proposition.

If you’re curious as to how your specific needs coalesce with current market conditions, don’t hesitate to reach out so we can talk through your real estate goals both in the short- and long-term!

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this morning’s opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of new inventory that has come onto the NYC market over the past WEEK as well as newly signed contracts in Manhattan.

Mortgage Rate Update

Mortgage rates decreased to their lowest level in over a month. Despite just a modest drop in rates, consumers clearly have responded as purchase demand has noticeably improved. The responsiveness on a national level of prospective homebuyers to even small changes in rates illustrates that affordability headwinds are still part of the equation.

News You Can Use

• Fed Officials Keep Options Open for December Rate Decision, Leaning Toward Rate Cut Bloomberg

• Wall Street Sees ‘Slower’ Pace of Fed Rate Cuts in 2025 Yahoo Finance

• Fed’s Powell Expects Good Relations with Trump Administration Bloomberg

• Powell Says Economic Strength Gives Fed Ability to Take Time on Rate Cuts Wall Street Journal

• JPMorgan Asset Prefers Real Estate and PE to Direct Lending Bloomberg

• Trump Picks Atkins to Lead SEC Bloomberg

• Tech Stocks Hit First All-Time High Since July CNBC

• Bitcoin Soars Past $100,000 on Trump’s Pro-Crypto Pick for SEC Bloomberg

• Black Friday Hits a Record $74.4B in Sales Online Tech Crunch

• Powell Said He’s Not Worried About the Fed Losing its Independence CNBC

• Where Are Young Singles? On Facebook Dating Axios

The Deep Insight

Contact Me

Feel free to reach out to discuss more in-depth about your real estate goals, share your thoughts about my newsletter, or to share what you're experiencing in this market. Looking forward to hearing from you!