How's The Market?

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! Gold is going through the roof, the Fed will continue to remain patient on rate cuts while Trump says he has no intentions of firing Fed Chair Powell. Anecdotally, more and more buyers are starting to make their way into the home buying arena, SummerStage released its lineup of free shows in Central Park and your politeness to robots when saying ‘please’ or ‘thank you’ are costing tens of millions of dollars in computing costs to ChatGPT.

If you missed last weeks newsletter Here Are the Renovations You Can Make With the Largest Return, you can read that through the link.

How’s the Market?

Well, that depends on which side of the table you're sitting on. In a dynamic and ever-evolving market like New York City, trends shift quickly and apartments move even faster. While we often look to data to answer whether it’s a “good time” to buy or sell, it’s important to remember that most of that data reflects past conditions—it’s like looking in the rearview mirror, not through the windshield.

With uncertainty around tariffs and the spring selling season in full swing, the NYC market is giving us a mixed picture. Here’s what we’re seeing on the ground across different sectors:

Rental Market: Rents continue to climb steadily, driven primarily by a persistent lack of inventory. First-time homebuyers who are still priced out of ownership are fueling rental demand. Interestingly, even High Net Worth and Ultra High Net Worth individuals are opting to rent in certain markets—often at stratospheric levels ranging from $40,000 to $120,000 per month.

Buyers Market: With mortgage rates stabilizing in recent months, more buyers are returning to the market—sparking increased competition for a still-limited pool of inventory. While more listings are appearing, they haven’t kept pace with the growing number of interested buyers. As traditional asset classes face turbulence due to geopolitical concerns and potential tariff impacts, real estate is increasingly seen as a safe haven for capital.

Sellers Market: Sellers still maintain a slight edge in negotiations, though we’re beginning to see a move toward equilibrium. Well-priced, high-quality inventory is in demand, especially from buyers who’ve been actively looking but have yet to find the right fit. Sellers who list now can expect strong interest—if their pricing strategy is in line with current market realities.

While lagging indicators like closed deals and mortgage applications are valuable, it’s the leading indicators that truly offer insight into the current state of the market. An uptick in open house traffic, heightened interest in listings, and a growing demand for strategic guidance around renting, buying, or selling all signal continued momentum. These early signals give us a more accurate picture of where the market is heading than data that reflects past activity.

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this Mornings opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of new inventory that has come onto the NYC market over the past month as well as newly signed contracts in Manhattan.

Mortgage Rate Update

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped slightly this week. Over the last few months, the 30-year fixed rate has fluctuated less than 20 basis points, creating a much needed level of certainty and stability which continues to play very well for buyers and sellers alike. While other asset classes continue to show volatility, making investors nervous, real estate is continuing to hold its value.

News You Can Use

• The Four Reasons Why the Fed Will Be Patient on Rates Bloomberg

• Trump Says He Has No Intention of Firing Fed Chief Powell CNBC

• Gold Hits Record as Dollar Sags and Trade War Concerns Persist Bloomberg

• Trump Says He Is 100% Confident on Europe Trade Deal Reuters

• Stocks Rebound as US Treasury Secretary Says China Trade War is Unsustainable CNN

• Trump Takes Over Penn Station Project From MTA New York Times

• NYC Gateway Program Expected to Give Local Economy $445B Boost Bloomberg

• JPMorgan CEO Says Something Everyone Can Agree On: ‘Kill Meetings’ and Corporate Jargon Yahoo Finance

• One&Only Is Opening An Ultraluxury Resort in the Hudson Valley Bloomberg

• ChatGPT Spends Tens of Millions of Dollars On Computing Politeness Tech Radar

• NYC SummerStage Releases Lineup of Free Shows in Central Park and Across NYC The Gothamist

The Deep Insight

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Feel free to reach out to discuss more in-depth about your real estate goals, share your thoughts about my newsletter, or to share what you're experiencing in this market. Looking forward to hearing from you!