How's The Market?

The Weekly Recap

US new-home sales hit a one-year high in March, US business spending continued to fall in March, US GDP growth slowed to 1.1% indicating that Fed measures may be working, Morgan Stanley is predicting a complete crash of the commercial real estate market, Central banks are loading up on gold, Moody's downgraded a bunch of regional banks, First Republic announced that they've seen a $100 billion deposit exodus from their bank. LVMH surpassed the $500B market cap, IPO market is starting to show signs of life even with recession fears, and Bed Bath and Beyond can now add Bankruptcy to its alliteration store name.

How's The Market?

The NYC real estate market continues to be a fast paced and complicated marketplace with multiple factors and a litany of different dynamic economic conditions that are impacting the perspectives of individuals across the market.

How the market is, really depends on what side of the transaction you find yourself on:

If you're looking to RENT, this continues to be one of the most dynamic rental markets that I've experienced in my career. With the average 1 bed rent in Manhattan being $5,200 and the median being $4,500 per month (both records), demand continues to outstrip supply with a bevy of individuals who have pushed off buying their first home due to increased rates, keeping them in competition for the same apartments that transplants are competing with. Rent continues to be the single largest net outflow of capital for any individual.

If you're in the BUYING MARKET, although rates have ticked up, locking in a rate and purchasing now hedges your bet against future inflation. Even with the Fed pushing the US towards a recession that will bring down rates over the next 12-18 months, waiting to buy will cost you in lost price appreciation. Low inventory continues to keep some buyers on the sidelines. Owning real estate is still the number one way to create generational wealth in the United States with it being an asset class responsible for 80% of global wealth.

If you're in the SELLING MARKET, with low inventory gives you the ability to be aggressive in your pricing. You'll be uniquely positioned to leverage the marketplace and sell within 30-45 days if you are realistic about achieving your pricing goals. Great homes will always move regardless of the underlying market conditions that dictate consumer behavior.

For any further insight on how to achieve your real estate goals or how to navigate the current landscape, always feel free to reach out!

Market Performance

Here is how other asset classes performed as of this morning's opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of new inventory that has come onto the NYC market as well as newly signed contracts that have taken place over the last week.

Mortgage Rate Update

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased modestly for the second straight week, but with the rate of inflation decelerating rates should gently decline over the course of 2023. Incoming data suggest the housing market has stabilized from a sales and house price perspective. The prospect of lower mortgage rates for the remainder of the year should be welcome news to borrowers who are looking to purchase a home?

News You Can Use

• US New Home Sales Soar to One-Year High in March Reuters

• NYC Has the Priciest Rents But Jersey City is Closing In Bloomberg

• US GDP Rose 1.1% In the First Quarter CNBC

• US Banks On Alert Over Falling Commercial Real Estate Valuations Financial Times

• Central Banks Load Up On Gold In Response to Rising Geopolitical Tensions Financial Times

• US Business Spending on Equipment Weakening As Demand for Goods Slow Reuters

• IPO Market Shows Signs of Life Even as Recession Fears Persist Bloomberg

• Moody's Downgrades 11 Regional Banks WSJ

• After Going On a Shopping Spree, Americans Are Spending Less Axios

• First Republic Falls Nearly 50% to Record Low After Reporting Massive Deposit Drop CNBC

• Americans Escaping Pricey Cities Bring Higher Housing and Inflation with Them WSJ

• Luxury Goods Giant LVMH Becomes First European Co. to Surpass $500 Billion in Market Value CNBC

• The Impending Fight for Private Equity Buyout Lending The Information

• The Debt Overhang Facing Frontier Markets Axios

• What Young Workers Miss By Not Being In the Office NY Times

• SVB Failure Was Caused By a Banking, Not Tech, Crisis CNBC

• Why First Republic Has Not Done a Deal Yet New York Times

• Make This Simple Move to Get More Return on Your Cash WSJ

• US Consumer Confidence Hits Nine-Month Low Reuters

• The Best Rooftop Bars in NYC Esquire

The Deep Insight

Contact Me

Feel free to reach out to discuss more in-depth about your real estate goals, share your thoughts about my newsletter, or to share what you're experiencing in this market. Looking forward to hearing from you!