We Made It to Summer Team!

The Weekly Recap

Fed officials do not have a consensus on more rate hikes, US economic growth hits highest monthly increase in more than a year while Congress and the White House are getting closer in trying to avoid a debt default while JPMorgan Chase puts the probability of a debt default at 25%. Mortgage demand is down 30% YoY, China doesn’t like the idea of a US/Taiwan trade deal, AI faked us out with an attack on the Pentagon, all those empty malls and Bed Bath & Beyond stores are finding new life as Pickelball courts, Ron DeSantis entered an ever increasingly crowded Republican field for President and my worst nightmare is happening, pasta prices are accelerating at such a rapid rate, that there are crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike.

We Made It to Summer Team

Happy Memorial Day Weekend! This is a short issue this week as I know at least 15% of you are already poolside with a Whiteclaw Surge in your hands. Enjoy the weekend, celebrate that you’ve survived more rate hikes in the last 12 months than most people have in the last 12 years and then we’ll get right back to market analysis and my two cents next week. Thanks as always for your support and reading!

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this mornings opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of new inventory that has come onto the NYC market over the past week as well as newly signed contracts that have taken place over the last week.

Mortgage Rate Update

The US economy is showing continued resilience which, combined with debt ceiling concerns, led to higher mortgage rates this week. Dampened affordability remains an issue for interested homebuyers and homeowners seem unwilling to lose their low rate and put their home on the market. If this predicament continues to limit supply, it could open up an opportunity for builders to help address the country’s housing shortage.

News You Can Use

• Top Fed Official: The Low Interest Rate Era Will Make A Comeback Axios

• Fed Officials Split on More Rate Hikes, Stress ‘Optionality’ In Making Future Changes Yahoo Finance

• Mortgage Demand Drops Again as Rates Cross Back Over 7% CNBC

• US Growth Touches Fastest Monthly Rate in More Than a Year Wall Street Journal

• Biden and McCarthy Try to Avoid Looming Debt Default CNBC

• China Opposes Trade Agreement Reached Between US and Taiwan Reuters

• US Companies Pull Forward Bond Deals Amid Debt Ceiling Nerves Financial Times

• Biden, McCarthy Appear Close to Deal on US Debt Ceiling as Default Looms Reuters

• Treasury Confirms US Default As Early As June 1 Without Hike Reuters

• Corporate America is Doing Fine as Q1 Earnings Show Axios

• Jamie Dimon Warns of a Commercial Real Estate Downturn CNN

• Private Equity Steps Up Lending as US Banks Pull Back Reuters

• New Student Loan Forgiveness Rule Simplifies Process- Who Qualifies? Yahoo Finance

• Summer Travel Will Be Busy and Pricey Bloomberg

• Pasta Prices Have Surged, Prompting Crisis Meetings in Italy CNBC

The Deep Insight

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