New York City Real Estate Just Experienced An Incredible September

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! Mortgage rates ticked up again, JPMorgan declared that the US Economy has achieved its ‘soft landing’ while the market has officially hit two years of being in bull territory. The six largest US banks all reported strong Q3 results. SpaceX is getting ridiculous as it actually caught a rocket booster in MID-AIR after it came back from space, NYC’s Hudson Square is trying to be cool, no one can decide on a perfect time for daylight savings and no one wants to live near TikTokers.

If you missed last weeks newsletter on What Are the Keys to A Successful Real Estate Market in 2025, you can read that through the link.

New York City Real Estate Just Experienced An Incredible September

The NYC fall home-shopping season is experiencing a strong resurgence, marking its best start since 2021. Several key factors are contributing to this positive momentum, with the primary driver being a notable decline in mortgage rates. This drop in rates has provided relief for buyers who were previously deterred by higher borrowing costs, creating a sense of urgency and opportunity in the market.

At the same time, the influx of new inventory is helping to balance out the increased demand. Many sellers, encouraged by the cooling of mortgage rates and the prospect of meeting eager buyers, have been putting their homes on the market. This growing inventory is essential for maintaining a healthier supply-demand balance, which had been skewed toward sellers in the past couple of years due to low inventory levels.

New Homes Entering Contract: Across NYC, 1,676 homes entered contract in September, a 26.4% increase from last year, with Manhattan leading the surge. The jump in new contracts following the first two weeks including the Labor Day weekend was the strongest since 2021.

Asking Prices: Asking prices have been stable with the citywide median at $1.1M since April while a typical home sold at 96.2% of its initial asking price in September. As strong demand continued in Brooklyn and Queens, median asking prices are still on the rise in these two boroughs.

The Luxury Market: The luxury market, defined as the most expensive 10% of the listings in NYC, saw a rebound in activity after recent declines in asking prices and increases in new listings. The starting price of this segment was $4.7M in September, down 5.2% from the peak of $4.95M in December 2023. The luxury market saw 70 new luxury contracts in September, a 52% increase from a year ago.

NYC market is in a “Goldilocks” moment. Across the city, 4,164 new listings joined the market, a 7.1% jump from a year ago, and balanced out the surge in demand. As a result, competition among buyers remained steady. Recent data suggest it could be possible to see rising transactions while avoiding a flare-up in competition as long as mortgage rates decline gradually this year and next.

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this morning’s opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of new inventory that has come onto the NYC market over the past MONTH as well as newly signed contracts in Manhattan.

Mortgage Rate Update

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased for the third week in a row. Higher rates generally reflect the strength in the economy that is supportive of the housing market. But notably, as compared to a year ago, rates are more than one percentage point lower. Buyers are best served shopping around for the best mortgage product as rates vary widely between mortgage institutions.

News You Can Use

• JP Morgan Calls It: The U.S. Economy Has Made a Soft Landing Wall Street Journal

• The Bull Market is Two Years Old. Here’s Where Wall Street Thinks Stocks Go Next Yahoo Finance

• Housings Worst Crises in Decades Reverberates Through 2024 Race Bloomberg

• Soft Landing Optimism Spurs Broad Wall Street Rebound at Big Banks Yahoo Finance

• Can Hudson Square Reinvent Itself as New York City’s Next Hot Neighborhood? New York Times

• Low Home Turnover Rate, Charted Axios

• SpaceX Captures Booster Rocket in Step Toward Musk’s Mars Dream Bloomberg

• Investment Banking Surge at Morgan Stanley Solidifies Wall Street Revival Yahoo Finance

• Wholesale Prices Were Flat in September, Below Expectations CNBC

• US Consumers See Higher Long-Run Inflation, Rising Delinquency Risk Reuters

• Debate Over Daylight Saving Time Shows There’s No Perfect Time Bloomberg

• No One Wants to Live Near TikTokers Curbed

The Deep Insight

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