NYC Home Values: Will Prices Drop or Have They Stabilized?

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! Boomers are sitting on $19 Trillion worth of real estate, NYC can see an increase of over 17k new apartments thanks to the conversion of empty office buildings to residential space. NY and NJ are expected to make a bunch of money thanks to the World Cup. The outlook on inflation is the best its been since before the tariffs were announced, the mayoral race in NYC is tightening and something called a Labubu is taking over NYC clubs.

If you missed last weeks newsletter on How to Pass A Board Interview, you can read that through the link.

NYC Home Values: Will Prices Drop Or Have They Stabilized?

For months now, many New Yorkers have asked the same question: Are home prices in NYC finally going to come down, or are we heading for another round of stabilization? The answer isn’t as black-and-white, but the outlook is becoming clearer. While we’ve seen some price softening in select luxury sectors and outer-borough properties, the broader market, especially in Manhattan and prime parts of Brooklyn, have shown surprising resilience. Inventory remains tight, and that lack of supply continues to prop up prices even as buyer confidence fluctuates.

One of the biggest misconceptions is that elevated mortgage rates automatically trigger lower prices. In NYC however, many sellers are sitting on historically low interest rates and are simply unwilling to list unless they absolutely have to. This creates a bottleneck effect in where there are fewer listings with still enough demand to keep pricing competitive. In neighborhoods like the West Village, Dumbo, and parts of the Upper East Side, desirable properties are still commanding strong offers, especially when priced right and presented well. The one segment of the market that continues to move as if there has been no broader impact is in the $4 million and higher range as 153 deals were signed in June making it the strongest June for the luxury market since 2006.

On the flip side, buyers are showing more discipline. Gone are the days of panic-buying and aggressive bidding wars on mediocre listings. Today’s buyer is hyper value-conscious and more educated, looking for properties that balance lifestyle needs with long term growth potential. That means sellers need to be strategic, not just about price, but also presentation and timing.

Compared to the rest of the U.S., where home prices have been rising rapidly in many Sun Belt and suburban markets, New York City has remained more balanced as pricing has been less driven by speculation and more grounded in long-term demand. While other cities may be experiencing overheated appreciation, NYC’s price movements tend to be steadier, reflecting its mature market dynamics and global appeal. For now, we’re in a holding pattern of cautious optimism, where well-prepared buyers and sellers can still find success if they approach the market with clarity and a solid game plan.

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this morning’s opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of NYC market activity over the past week.

Mortgage Rate Update

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained relatively flat week over week against a backdrop of slower reported sales over the spring selling season. While prices were beginning to level off moving into summer, prices have started increasing in marketplaces that are still seeking for accurately priced inventory.

News You Can Use

• Trump Floats No Capital Gains Tax For Home Sales CNBC

• NYC Could Get 17k New Apartments Thanks to Office to Resi Conversions NY Post

• The US Economy is Regaining Its Swagger Wall Street Journal

• US Business Growth Hits a 2025 High As Services Strength Offset Manufacturing Bloomberg

• Trump Announces Massive Trade Deal with Japan CNBC

• Boomers Are Currently Sitting on $19 Trillion of Real Estate NY Post

• Bessent says Fed Forecasts Are ‘Political’ Reuters

• June Home Sales Drop As Prices Rise CNBC

• US Jobless Claims Fell For a Sixth Straight Week Bloomberg

• Manhattan Foreclosures Spiked in Spring NY Post

• New Poll Shows Tightening NYC Mayoral Race CBS News

• EU Sees Progress Towards US Trade Deal Bloomberg

• The Stock Market Bargain That Is Right Under Your Nose Wall Street Journal

• Inflation Outlook Tumbles to Pre-Tariff Levels CNBC

• NY and NJ Expected to See a $3.3 Billion Boost Due to World Cup Bloomberg

• The Hottest Party In NYC Right Now? Labubu Raves Gothamist

The Deep Insight

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