Stock Market Volatility Is a Boon for Real Estate

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! The new Pope is an American, the Fed held rates steady while the Bank of England lowered them another 25bps in a sign of differing strategic policy around the world. The US and UK strike a trade deal, NY is asking a judge to bar Trump’s DOT from withholding funding over congestion pricing, Bitcoin cruised over the $100k mark, and the worlds greatest investor Warren Buffett announced he will be stepping down from Berkshire Hathaway at the tender age of 94.

If you missed last weeks newsletter Cost of Owning a Home Is Cheaper Today Than This Time Last Year, you can read that through the link.

Stock Market Volatility Is a Boon For Real Estate

Over the past few months, growing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, particularly in relation to China and Europe has sent waves through the economy, stalling momentum for home sales across a large swath of the country. For market watchers and investors, there is a silver lining that .t as a dependable long-term asset. Next to gold, real estate is the most consistently performing hard asset class available to everyone.

Amid market turbulence, investors often seek "hard assets"—tangible investments like real estate, farmland, and infrastructure. These assets are not only physical but also generate steady income and hedge against inflation. This desire for security and reliability has propelled real estate upward in portfolio allocations.

A recent study by Knight Frank and Wealth-X projects that by 2025, high-net-worth individuals will have increased their real estate allocations by 12%, driven by a desire for stability, asset-backed security, and income generation. This shift is already visible in the luxury markets of New York, Lisbon, Dubai, and Singapore.

Dot-com Recession (2000–2002): Allocation to real estate began modestly but grew as equities faltered.

Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009): Despite the real estate-triggered crash, institutional investors returned to the sector quickly, recognizing long-term value.

COVID Recession (2020): Allocation surged as stimulus and inflation fears made tangible assets attractive.

2023–2025 Projected Slowdown: Analysts from UBS and Knight Frank expect allocations to continue rising as investors seek inflation-resistant, income-generating properties.

With bond yields often below inflation-adjusted returns and equity markets bouncing wildly on geopolitical news, investors are searching for yield without volatility. Private equity and real estate emerge as the top contenders. But unlike private equity, real estate doesn’t require lock-up periods or complex exits—making it especially attractive for those needing liquidity flexibility.

Ambiguity and volatility naturally make people nervous, but those are the time where there are more opportunities for growth and can give you an edge over competition in the marketplace.

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this Mornings opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of new inventory that has come onto the NYC market over the past week as well as newly signed contracts in Manhattan.

Mortgage Rate Update

Mortgage rates stayed flat week over week. This time last year, rates were 30bps higher and purchase applications were trending downward. Today, rates are lower and have remained stable for weeks, sparking continued increases in purchase applications.

News You Can Use

• US and UK Unveil Framework for Trade Deal Wall Street Journal

• Barclays, Goldman Expect Next Fed Rate Cut In July After Jobs Report Reuters

• Powell Sees Inflation ‘Kind of Moving Sideways’ Bloomberg

• US Economy Added 177,000 Jobs In April Axios

• S&P 500 Posts Longest Winning Streak in 20 Years CNN

• Powell Says Fed Can Wait to Adjust Rates Bloomberg

• A Wobbly Economy Will Push the Fed to Cut Interest Rates Later This Year, Survey Finds CNBC

• Bitcoin Jumps Above $100,000 For the First Time Since February CNBC

• 72-Story Tower with 1,200 Units Proposed to Replace Brooklyn Eyesore 6sqFt NYC

• Fuel, Footwear Help Drive $30 Billion Merger Monday Bloomberg

• KKR Co-Founder Says ‘Stay Calm and Carry On’ in Market Uncertainty Reuters

• Tech Founders Bet On New York City Journal

• New York Asks Judge to Bar Trump DOT From Denying Funds Over Congestion Pricing Fight Bloomberg

• CEOs Celebrate Buffett as He Calls a Close on 5,500,000% Run Bloomberg

The Deep Insight

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