Stocks May Be Riding the Elevator Down, But NYC Real Estate Is On the Way Up

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! Manhattan’s luxury real estate market just saw the best first quarter for sales than it has in six years, Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are scaring market, Fed officials still maintain a wait and see approach to policy, Mayor Adams ditched the democratic party to run for re-election as an independent and the MTA released a new subway map for the first time in over 40 years and believe it or not, New Yorkers don’t like it.

If you missed last weeks newsletter How Does Real Estate Remain a Cornerstone of Financial Security, you can read that through the link.

Stocks May Be Riding the Elevator Down, But NYC Real Estate Is On the Way Up

While the announcement of new tariffs and their negative impact on the stock market have dominated headlines over the past 24 hours, initial market reactions are not necessarily an indicator of long-term trends. Market volatility often sparks knee-jerk responses, but history has shown that these fluctuations don’t always define the future trajectory. For context, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the S&P 500 actually closed the week higher than where it began, despite widespread panic, so lets keep the doom and gloom to a minimum for now.

At the same time, fresh data highlights the strong momentum within New York City’s real estate market. This sector continues to demonstrate resilience, reinforcing its position as a key investment avenue even amid broader economic uncertainty.

Manhattan’s real estate market demonstrated remarkable resilience in the first quarter of 2025, with apartment sales surging by 29%. This growth is particularly noteworthy given the harsh winter conditions in January, which brought frigid temperatures that slowed the housing market nationwide and disrupted the positive momentum seen across the U.S. Despite these challenges, the demand for Manhattan properties remained strong, highlighting the city's enduring appeal to buyers and investors.

The total value of these transactions reached nearly $5.7 billion, representing an incredible 56% increase compared to the same quarter last year. This surge suggests that Manhattan continues to attract both domestic and international buyers who view the city’s real estate as a valuable and appreciating asset. The numbers reflect not only a rebound from previous market uncertainties but also a renewed confidence in Manhattan’s long-term investment potential.

Buyers are also taking advantage of the small dips and relative stability of mortgage rates as 42% of the 2,560 transactions were financed. The median price for the home sales were $1.165 million while transactions in the high end luxury market saw a 19% increase YoY in the median price of $6.87 million. With declining luxury inventory, buyers in this price point are eager to make aggressive moves for homes that they want.

Alongside the growth in homeownership, the real estate industry in NYC proved once again that it is a main driver of the local economy. Real Estate related tax revenue increased to a record high $37 billion in 2024 and is on track to top $50 billion during this upcoming fiscal year. Commercial real estate is the main driver as the property type accounts for over 80% of total property taxes in the city.

Real estate is an asset class responsible for 80% of global wealth and is one of the safest asset classes that consumers can invest in.

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this morning’s opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of new inventory that has come onto the NYC market over the past week as well as newly signed contracts in Manhattan.

Mortgage Rate Update

Over the last month, the 30-year fixed-rate has essentially settled into place, having only made slight movement in either direction. This stability is incredibly reassuring for homebuyers and borrowers as purchase application demand is rising to the highest growth rate since the end of last year.

News You Can Use

• Manhattan Home Sales Soar as Buyers Seize on Mortgage Rate Dips Bloomberg

• Mortgage Rates Tumble on Tariffs, But Housing Costs Still Near Record High CNBC

• Fed Officials Cautious on Rates Amid Tariff-Related Inflation Risks Reuters

• Manhattan’s Luxury Real Estate Market Sees Best First Quarter in Six Years CNBC

• A Towering $3.6 Trillion of Value is Locked in 29,000 Unsold Companies Institutional Investor

• NYC Real-Estate-Related Revenue Hit Record $37B Last Year NY Post

• Mayor Eric Adams Running for Re-Election as an Independent Gothamist

• Larry Fink’s 2025 Annual Chairman’s Letter to Investors BlackRock

• MTA Unveils First New Subway Map for NYC in 45 Years ABC 7

• Hot NYC Restaurants Come and Go, But Impeccable Vibes Are Forever Bloomberg

The Deep Insight

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