What the Summer Can Tell Us to Expect From the Market in September

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! Powell gives his big speech today in Jackson Hole, existing home sales inched up in July, Downtown Brooklyn has built more new housing than any other NYC neighborhood, international buyers are outpacing US buyers for homes for the first time in 8 years, SoHo House has gone private and if you’re one of the poor souls who rides the NJ Transit frequently you should know it was named the least reliable form of rail transportation in NYC.

If you missed last weeks newsletter on Understanding Mortgage Options and the Comeback of the ARM, you can read that through the link.

What the Summer Can Tell Us to Expect From the Market in September

As we step into September, one of the clearest signals of where the NYC real estate market is headed comes from a close look at this summers contract activity. While the summer months often see a slowdown as buyers and sellers head out of town, contract volume in July and the beginning of August tends to serve as a preview of how the fall market will shape up.

This year, we saw a steady stream of contracts signed, particularly in the mid-to-luxury price ranges with almost every price point outperforming 2024. Buyers who had been on the sidelines earlier in the summer returned to the table, motivated by more realistic pricing and the sense that opportunities may not last into the new year. In some neighborhoods, the gap between buyer and seller expectations narrowed just enough to unlock deals that had been lingering.

The uptick in July activity suggests that September is likely to bring increased momentum. Historically, post–Labor Day marks the start of one of the most active real estate stretches of the year in New York City. With families settled back into routines, professionals back from travel, and new inventory hitting the market, September often sparks a noticeable increase in buyer urgency to identify purchase opportunities before the holidays.

For sellers, this means the next few weeks present a prime opportunity to position yourself strategically, both in pricing and marketing, while inventory is still building. For buyers, it’s a chance to get ahead of the crowd before competition heats up further.

With Fed Chairman Powell’s speech today at the Federal Reserve’s Annual Symposium in Jackson Hole, it will give a clearer indication as to what the rate strategy will be moving into September. Betting markets are putting the chances of a 25bps rate cut for September at around 62%. If more confidence comes from his speech today about even a higher rate cut, we can expect shopping, pre-approval and showing activity to increase dramatically post holiday weekend.

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this morning’s opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of NYC market activity over the past week.

Mortgage Rate Update

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stayed completely flat week over week after falling for five consecutive weeks to its lowest levels of 2025. Purchase application activity continues to outpace 2024 activity with buyers anticipated to re-enter the market following the end of Labor Day.

News You Can Use

• Foreigners Are Continuing to Buy US Homes Bloomberg

• Existing Home Sales Inched Up in July CNBC

• Investors Are Now Betting On An Economic Expansion Axios

• Bond Market’s Rate-Cut Bets Hit Decisive Stretch with Powell Bloomberg

• Here is What Wall Street Expects From Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech CNBC

• SoHo House Goes Private After $2.7B Buyout Bloomberg

• Downtown Brooklyn Set A Record for New Housing in 2025 NY Post

• NJ Transit is NYC’s Least Reliable Commuter Rail- By a Long Shot Bloomberg

• Per Goldman Sachs, This Has Been One of the Best Earnings Seasons on Record CNBC

• US Manufacturing Expands the Fastest Since 2022 on Demand Bloomberg

• Consumer Sentiment Signals Caution After Solid US Retail Sales Bloomberg

• Gigantic Changes Are Coming to Pro Golf Wall Street Journal

The Deep Insight

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