More Signs Point to Rate Cuts

The Weekly Recap

Good morning and happy Friday! Mortgage rates keep moving in the right direction, total household value in the US has hit an all time high of $55 Trillion according to Zillow, the AirBNB caps in NYC have not helped housing supply, developers are only looking to build buildings with 99 units in them, more jobs numbers have been drastically revised down, Apple unveiled the new iPhone 17 that looks like it will shatter if you hold it too tight and you can soon order an Uber helicopter to get you to JFK or the Hamptons.

If you missed last weeks newsletter on Best Tips to Price Your Home If You’re Thinking of Selling, you can read that through the link.

More Signs Point to Rate Cuts

Markets are increasingly betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut when policymakers convene next week (September 16–17). Futures pricing currently reflects about a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, with about a 10% chance of a more aggressive 50-basis-point move.

That shift has only become more pronounced following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual benchmark revision, which revealed that job growth from April 2024 through March 2025 was 911,000 jobs lower than previously estimated. That is the largest downward adjustment since at least 2000. This drastic revision underscores that the labor market had been cooling earlier and more significantly than initially thought, adding further momentum to the narrative that the Fed should act decisively to support the economy

As I mentioned at length in a post from a month ago titled Why the Jobs Numbers Revision Was a Gut Punch to Real Estate, these further massive downward revisions show that the economy was not moving as forcefully as once believed. The accuracy of this data is massively important as it is used as a lagging indicator by the Federal Reserve as to whether or not stimulate economic growth with quantitative easing measures (lowering rates) rather than keep them unchanged.

Taken together with hiring sputtering, the unemployment rate climbing and these revisions unveiling deeper structural slack in the economy, the outlook for September now strongly favors at least a 25-basis-point cut. This new dovish Fed stance comes even as inflation remains above traditional benchmarks, signaling that there can be a potential recalibration in monetary policy priorities, absconding with the necessary 2% inflation target.

Market Performance

Here are how some other indexes and asset classes have performed as of this morning’s opening bell.

NYC Market Update

Here is a view of NYC market activity over the past week.

Mortgage Rate Update

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 15 basis points from last week which was the largest weekly drop in the past year. Mortgage rates are headed in the right direction and homebuyers have noticed, as purchase application reached the highest year-over-year growth rate in more than four years.

News You Can Use

• Developers Build 99-Unit Buildings to Avoid Wage Requirements Bloomberg

• Jobs Slowdown Seals Fed Rate Cut Yahoo Finance

• Wholesale Prices Unexpectedly Declined in August CNBC

• New York’s Airbnb Crackdown, In Force for Two Years, Hasn’t Improved Housing Supply Wall Street Journal

• US Economy Has 1.2 Million Fewer Jobs Than First Thought CNBC

• Manhattan Office Leasing Jumps 20% in August CNBC

• New Yorkers Will Soon Be Able to Hail Helicopters Via Uber NY Post

• Apple Pitches iPhone Air as the Future, But Pro Models Are Better Today Bloomberg

The Deep Insight

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